I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to 0.71 (based on ADP data). Here’s what I got for forecasts of September and October private NFP as reported by BLS:
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production, and capacity utilization [correction: no G.17 release h/t Paweł Skrzypczyński ].
Per Kalshi, on 10/18 noon CT. At this rate, we miss Metro area Employment/Unemployment, Consumer Expenditures, Employment Cost Index, Business Employment Dynamics, September JOLTS, Productivity and Costs, October Employment Situation releases on their scheduled dates.
Hard to assess, since we don’t know how much was blown.
From the report,faster growth in the world, US – but US level below pre-Trump trend:
WEI and WECI, for data releases through 10/11/2025:
Data suggests that Big Mac prices are far outpacing the CPI, and AIER’s Everyday Price Index. Oh, the humanity!
Daily data from Baker, Bloom and Davis:
The $20 billion swap announced by Bessent (not on US Treasury website as far as I can tell) is funded out of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. As far as I can tell, there’s no conditionality. This transaction is qualitatively different from Fed swap lines with for instand ECB and BoE wherein the Fed had access to their currencies.
COFER data is out for Q2. With estimated gold held by the central banks, we have this picture of reserve composition.