Not literally, but on wood pulp used for TP? Implicitly, SecTreas Bessent is suggesting that if the IEEPA tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court.
“We can recreate the exact tariff structure with 301s, with 232s, with the—I think they’re called 122s,” he said, referring to three separate statutory authorities governing trade actions.
Manufacturing (gross) production up (until September).
November ADP data allows us to guesstimate nonfarm payroll employment, while the Fed’s data for industrial and manufacturing production in September gives us more of a reading on September. First, key indicators followed by te NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):
ADP private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down -32K vs. +5K Bloomberg consensus. Mfg employment down 6K.
Not quite in the spirit of the season, EJ Antoni on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP):
“…for many of these people, [poverty]’s a choice!”
Following up on this post, what are the academic works of Kevin Hassett on monetary policy?
Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP release.
Employment seems to be growing very slowly, if not shrinking, while output (measured with lots of noise) seems to be rising, into Q3. Would NBER ever determine a recession occurred when GDP was rising?
From USNI:
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.* A shorter version was published by Project Syndicate.