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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

How Much Longer Can We Trust Our Economic Statistics?

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The Commerce Department eliminated two advisory committees on economic statistics gathering (see Marketplace). BLS received some additional funds in March as part of a continuing resolution; however the Trump budget proposal includes an 8% reduction in budget in nominal terms.

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This entry was posted on July 22, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Why Trade Uncertainty – Illustrated

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Here’re the Baker-Bloom-Davis categorical trade policy uncertainty measure and the Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index. Why are these measures elevated? In my mind, why aren’t they even higher?

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

EJ Antoni/Heritage: “Back from the Brink: Trump’s Economy Soars Instead of Crashing”

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What’s this guy smoking? From the article (originally Wash Examiner):

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Recession Detection Along the Anticipation-Precision Frontier”

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Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Pascal Michaillat (UCSC). 


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This entry was posted on July 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“Groceries” under Trump

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ERS predicts 2.2% increase in food-at-home prices in 2025. Continue reading →

This entry was posted on July 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

CEA: “Imported Goods Have Been Getting Cheaper Relative to Domestically Produced Goods”

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That’s the title of a report by the Trump administration CEA earlier this month. It’s an interesting question whether this is the relevant question or not.

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

EJ Antoni on the No Tariff Pass Through Thesis

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From Heritage Chief Economist EJ Antoni on X:

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Thanks, Drumpf

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WSJ mean survey forecast relative to 2023-2024 trend.

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Uncertainty

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Policy uncertainty has remains high; does it matter for economic uncertainty?

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This entry was posted on July 19, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Tariffs in the Data

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From CPI, note the CPI furniture and appliances category:

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This entry was posted on July 18, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • How Much Longer Can We Trust Our Economic Statistics?
  • Why Trade Uncertainty – Illustrated
  • EJ Antoni/Heritage: “Back from the Brink: Trump’s Economy Soars Instead of Crashing”
  • Guest Contribution: “Recession Detection Along the Anticipation-Precision Frontier”
  • “Groceries” under Trump

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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